Predicting the distribution of Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus in Europe: a comparison of climate niche modelling approaches.

BACKGROUND: The ticks Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus are two of the most important vectors in Europe. Climate niche modelling has been used in many studies to attempt to explain their distribution and to predict changes under a range of climate change scenarios. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of different climate niche modelling approaches to explain the known distribution of I. ricinus and D. reticulatus in Europe. METHODS: A series of climate niche models, using different combinations of input data, were constructed and assessed. Species occurrence records obtained from systematic literature searches and Global Biodiversity Information Facility data were thinned to different degrees to remove sampling spatial bias. Four sources of climate data were used: bioclimatic variables, WorldClim, TerraClimate and MODIS satellite-derived data. Eight different model training extents were examined and three modelling frameworks were used: maximum entropy, generalised additive models and random forest models. The results were validated through internal cross-validation, comparison with an external independent dataset and expert opinion. RESULTS: The performance metrics and predictive ability of the different modelling approaches varied significantly within and between each species. Different combinations were better able to define the distribution of each of the two species. However, no single approach was considered fully able to capture the known distribution of the species. When considering the mean of the performance metrics of internal and external validation, 24 models for I. ricinus and 11 models for D. reticulatus of the 96 constructed were considered adequate according to the following criteria: area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve > 0.7; true skill statistic > 0.4; Miller's calibration slope 0.25 above or below 1; Boyce index > 0.9; omission rate < 0.15. CONCLUSIONS: This comprehensive analysis suggests that there is no single 'best practice' climate modelling approach to account for the distribution of these tick species. This has important implications for attempts to predict climate-mediated impacts on future tick distribution. It is suggested here that climate variables alone are not sufficient; habitat type, host availability and anthropogenic impacts, not included in current modelling approaches, could contribute to determining tick presence or absence at the local or regional scale.

Distribution of ticks in the Western Palearctic: an updated systematic review (2015-2021).

BACKGROUND: The distributions of ticks and tick-borne pathogens are thought to have changed rapidly over the last two decades, with their ranges expanding into new regions. This expansion has been driven by a range of environmental and socio-economic factors, including climate change. Spatial modelling is being increasingly used to track the current and future distributions of ticks and tick-borne pathogens and to assess the associated disease risk. However, such analysis is dependent on high-resolution occurrence data for each species. To facilitate such analysis, in this review we have compiled georeferenced tick locations in the Western Palearctic, with a resolution accuracy under 10 km, that were reported between 2015 and 2021 METHODS: The PubMed and Web of Science databases were searched for peer-reviewed papers documenting the distribution of ticks that were published between 2015 and 2021, using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The papers were then screened and excluded in accordance with the PRISMA flow chart. Coordinate-referenced tick locations along with information on identification and collection methods were extracted from each eligible publication. Spatial analysis was conducted using R software (version 4.1.2). RESULTS: From the 1491 papers identified during the initial search, 124 met the inclusion criteria, and from these, 2267 coordinate-referenced tick records from 33 tick species were included in the final dataset. Over 30% of articles did not record the tick location adequately to meet inclusion criteria, only providing a location name or general location. Among the tick records, Ixodes ricinus had the highest representation (55%), followed by Dermacentor reticulatus (22.1%) and Ixodes frontalis (4.8%). The majority of ticks were collected from vegetation, with only 19.1% collected from hosts. CONCLUSIONS: The data presented provides a collection of recent high-resolution, coordinate-referenced tick locations for use in spatial analyses, which in turn can be used in combination with previously collated datasets to analyse the changes in tick distribution and research in the Western Palearctic. In the future it is recommended that, where data privacy rules allow, high-resolution methods are routinely used by researchers to geolocate tick samples and ensure their work can be used to its full potential.

Molecular Detection of Candidatus Orientia chuto in Wildlife, Saudi Arabia.

Scrub typhus is a zoonosis caused by 3 species of Orientia bacteria, including Candidatus Orientia chuto. This species is known only from a human case in Dubai and infections in wildlife in Kenya. We report molecular detection of Candidatus O. chuto in 2 wild rodent species from Saudi Arabia.

Update and prognosis of Dermacentor distribution in Germany: Nationwide occurrence of Dermacentor reticulatus.

A considerable range expansion of Dermacentor reticulatus has been observed in several European countries, which is concerning in the light of its vector function for several pathogens, including Babesia canis and tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV). The present study provides an update on the distribution of Dermacentor ticks in Germany, using a citizen science approach. Ticks were collected by citizens from March 2020 to May 2021, and submitted along with information on the date and location of collection, potential hosts and details about the circumstances of discovery. In total, 3,292 Dermacentor specimens were received, of which 76.4% (2,515/3,292) were identified as D. reticulatus and 23.0% (758/3,292) as D. marginatus, while 0.6% (19/3,292) were too damaged for species-level identification. Dermacentor reticulatus was received from all federal states of Germany. Maxent species distribution models predicted suitable environmental conditions for D. reticulatus throughout Germany. Findings on the vegetation or on pastured animals without travel history confirmed the occurrence of this tick species as far north as the most northern German federal state Schleswig-Holstein. In contrast, the distribution of D. marginatus still appears to be limited to southwestern Germany, although the northward shift of the distribution limit observed in the preceding citizen science study, as compared with previous published distributions, was confirmed. This shift was also predicted by Maxent species distribution models, reflecting the broader distribution of the tick occurrence data contributed by citizens. Most D. reticulatus ticks were found on dogs (1,311/1,960, 66.9%), while D. marginatus was mainly discovered on hoofed animals (197/621, 31.7%) and humans (182/621, 29.3%). Human tick bites were reported in 0.7% (14/1,960) of host-assigned D. reticulatus and 3.4% (21/621) of host-assigned D. marginatus. Further studies to investigate an increasing endemisation of Babesia canis in Germany as well as the relevance of D. reticulatus for TBEV spread throughout the country, e.g., by traveling dogs, are urgently needed. In view of the activity of D. reticulatus during winter or the colder months, which complements that of Ixodes ricinus, a year-round tick protection of at least dogs is strongly recommended.